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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans improving together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still